Research analyzes AI’s labor impact as companies integrate new tech
On Monday, Americans for Responsible Innovation (ARI) released a new report exploring the workforce impacts of artificial intelligence using a new framework for technological disruption. The report, titled The Technologist-Economist Disconnect: Assessing AI Labor Disruption, finds that economists are likely underestimating job losses from AI by failing to account for the flexibility of AI to take on and replace labor for newly created jobs. The analysis also offers an overview of the policy landscape for addressing AI labor disruption.
Read the full report: Assessing AI Labor Disruption
“Silicon Valley says they’re designing technology that can replace human labor, but many economists are still painting a rosy picture when it comes to America’s jobs outlook,” said ARI President Brad Carson. “This report is about exploring the disparity in those forecasts and offering policymakers a clearer picture of how AI might disrupt labor. The bottom line is we need to be preparing for a large-scale workforce transition that lawmakers have not yet come to terms with.”
Findings from the report include:
- When economists calculate workforce disruptions from AI, they rely on an old framework finding the net difference between jobs automated away and projected jobs created.
- Because of AI’s flexibility as a general-purpose technology that can be adapted for new kinds of work, many projected new jobs will also be taken by AI.
- Firms like McKinsey estimate that 30 percent of current hours worked will be automated or taken over by AI, but that new jobs will erase job losses, a projection we find fails to account for AI’s flexibility to assume new work.
- Historically, governments have helped navigate waves of labor transformation through bold policy action. The government will need to be prepared with a range of proposals that match the scale of AI’s potential impacts.
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Americans for Responsible Innovation (ARI) is a nonprofit organization dedicated to policy advocacy in the public interest, focused on emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI). Learn more at ARI.us.